Seven series down, one to go. If you told hockey fans at the start of the playoffs the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs would be the last first-round series to be decided, you probably would have gotten a few sideways looks. But, here we are. It doesn’t get much better than this. Game 6 on Hockey Night in Canada between the Leafs and Habs with fans in the building!
The Maple Leafs' top offensive players, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have been quieter than usual. Matthews has scored once in five games and Marner is still looking for his first goal of the series. Have they been quiet though or has Carey Price simply had their number through five games in this series? With that question in mind, we took a look at the most effective lines from the first round of the playoffs and ranked them by expected goals for percentage - their share of expected goals based on shot volume, quality and type. It’s fair to criticize the Matthews line for not finishing its chances but to suggest the line is struggling to create offence would be a stretch. Here are the top-5 forward lines from Round 1.
1. Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Incredibly, the most dangerous goal scorer in the NHL, Auston Matthews is stuck on one goal despite leading the playoffs in scoring chances with 28. With the Matthews line on the ice at even-strength, the Maple Leafs have controlled almost 80 percent of the expected goal share. What does that mean in tangible terms? The Matthews line has lived in the Canadiens end, outshooting Montreal 28-10 from the slot and out-chancing the Canadiens 13-3 off-the-cycle.
In their minutes together, Morgan Rielly, Zach Hyman, and Matthews have scored while the line has yet to concede a goal in the series. If you believe that all things even out in the end, expect this line to break through offensively tonight because they have certainly created plenty of good chances in the series so far.
2. Svechnikov-Aho-Teravainen
The top line in Carolina was its dominant self in the Hurricanes' first-round match-up against the Nashville Predators. Like the Matthews line, the Canes top trio feasts off of puck possession and hemming its opponents in their end. Carolina is a tenacious forechecking team that forces turnovers and the Aho line is skilled enough to quick-strike and put the puck in the back of the net. The only player with more scoring chances in the first round than Aho is Matthews, as the Aho line outshot its opponents by just over a 2-to-1 ratio and out-chanced the Preds off-the-cycle by a 3-to-1 ratio.
3. Marchessault-Karlsson-Smith
The third and final line with an expected goals percentage north of 70 percent in the first round was the top line in Vegas. Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith dominated the competition albeit in a different way than the Aho and Matthews lines. The Golden Knights top trio gets it done with its speed. Karlsson’s line is masters at forcing turnovers and getting up the ice quickly to strike off-the-rush, something they did well in the first round against the Minnesota Wild.
The Karlsson line out-chanced the Wild 14-4 and outscored them 4-1 in the opening round. Vegas scored more goals off-the-rush than any team in the NHL during the regular season and team speed will have to be a big part of its offence in Round 2 as the Golden Knights get set to face the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs can fly as well so expect to see some fast-paced action in a dream second-round match-up between Vegas and Colorado.
4. Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
It’s not a big surprise to see this line crack our top-5 list. The "Perfection Line" wasn’t perfect in the first round, but it wasn’t far off. Boston’s top line scored five of the Bruins eleven even-strength goals against the Capitals in the series and dominated in terms of quality shots on net, outshooting the Caps 18-4 from the slot. Like the Karlsson line in Vegas, the Bergeron line did a lot of damage off-the-rush, out-chancing the Capitals 9-1 in its even-strength minutes.
That’s not to suggest this group can’t create offence in other ways. There might not be a line in the NHL that reads off each other as well as Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak. Marchand is one of the top forwards in the league protecting the puck and does a great job of attracting defenders to him. Expect to see a lot of this against their second-round opponent, the New York Islanders, with Bergeron and Pastrnak looking for open-ice to release a quick one-timer.
5. Fast-Staal-Foegele
Ranking 5th on our list with an expected goal percentage of 67.1% is the Hurricanes line of Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal, and Warren Foegele. This trio doesn’t get as much attention as the Canes top line but it was a dominant line for Carolina in the opening round. Staal led all Hurricanes players in even-strength goals and points with four and five, respectively.
Staal is a nightmare to contain in front of the net due to his size and reach, while Foegele and Fast do a terrific job of recovering pucks and protecting the puck in the offensive zone to set up scoring chances.
In just over 50 minutes of even-strength ice-time in the first round, this line produced a whopping 22 slot shots on net while only conceding 9. It dominated in the offensive zone, owning a 10-1 advantage in cycle scoring chances while outscoring the Predators overall 3-1.
There will be plenty of star power in the Hurricanes versus Lightning series in Round 2 but don’t sleep on this line as a potential difference-maker for Carolina.
Ranking the top-five forward lines from Round 1: Matthews line on top - Sportsnet.ca
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