EDMONTON — It is far less important where a playoff team finishes in the standings, history tells us, than how that team is playing when the tournament begins. This isn’t just sweet music to the ears of an Edmonton Oilers fan, but a cold fact in a league that usually features two upsets in eight Round 1 series’ — sometimes three.
The wrong injury at the wrong time, a cold goalie or a key player who just isn’t right can make up the difference between two clubs that finish within only five or six points of each other after an 82-game season.
In Edmonton’s case, we’re not making the leap that Mikko Koskinen made on Monday, when he was asked about the narrative that he is a good goalie — until he’s asked to play too many games in a row. Then his game tends to dip.
“I think that’s something that you (media) guys made up in your heads. I’m not going to buy that,” Koskinen said, staying true to his claim that he doesn’t pay attention to history, only to the next game on the schedule.
Is he ready to be a No. 1 goalie down the stretch and into the playoffs? Koskinen laughed at the question: “Yes.”
So there’s a place to start, as we dive into where the Oilers are with 23 games to play, and where they could be when the playoffs start in May.
Can Koskinen be a goalie who can play and win a seven-game series?
Well, if he plays in 16 or 17 of the Oilers' final 23 games, and stays at the same level he has been at since Jan 22 — .922 save percentage, 2.46 GAA, 9-1-2 record — then sure. Who cares about Koskinen’s past — it’s the right now that matters.
But hold on here. Who says Koskinen has been a true No. 1?
Koskinen has only started 12 of Edmonton’s 23 games in that span, or basically 50 per cent. That’s not a true No. 1, which you need in the playoffs.
The difference has been two-fold: His glove hand has improved vastly, and so has the team in front of him, of late.
“For me it feels like we’re playing tighter. Taking time and space away, it makes the reads easier for me — you kind of (know) where the puck is going to go next,” he said.
Better team, better goaltending. It’s not rocket science, is it?
It is our belief that Edmonton will not acquire a goalie at the trade deadline
Marc-Andre Fleury does not wish to play in Edmonton, we are told. Ditto Semyon Varlamov, who we are told will use his 16-team no trade list to stay on the Island. Anaheim’s John Gibson has a 10-team NTC list, on which Edmonton can be found.
Jake Allen is injured, and we’re not sure why Montreal would trade him anyhow, considering the question marks surrounding Carey Price’s future. Dallas is not about to furnish a wild-card opponent with a solution (Braden Holtby) to their netminding woes. The New York Rangers might part with Alex Georgiev if they got a goalie back in the deal, but his numbers (.893, 3.15) stink. So do Joonas Korpisalo’s (.883, 3.95).
So as much as Oilers Nation will despise this news, Edmonton will spend a couple more games attempting to get Mike Smith’s game back up to snuff. If that fails, in Stuart Skinner we trust.
They’ll land a defenceman at the deadline. We’d prefer Carson Soucy from Seattle.
But the feeling is, if the team’s defensive play keeps getting better, that might just be the most realistic way to help the goaltending situation.
Here’s what makes us bullish on Edmonton’s game since Jay Woodcroft took over on Feb. 11
Being a poor five-on-five team with an excellent power play is a false-floor premise. When the power plays go away in the playoffs, and five-on-five play becomes more prevalent and important, those teams’ top weapon is mitigated. And they lose.
What Edmonton is starting to become under Woodcroft is a better five-on-five team that, when it gets all its people back, should still have a Top 3 powerplay in the NHL. Here are some numbers:
Under Tippett: 28-18-3, 140 GF, 146 GA, 88 GF at 5-on-5, 100 GA at 5-on-5
Under Woodcroft: 9-5-1, 50 GF, 41 GA, 31 GF at 5-on-5, 23 GA at 5-on-5
We’ve been a broken record when it comes to the Oilers needing to keep the goals against down, and how their top players — Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — must lead the way in that regard. Well, that’s exactly what is happening.
In 15 games under Woodcroft at five-on-five, Draisaitl has been on the ice for 18 goals for and just five against for a plus-13. McDavid is 19 and 11, for a plus-8. In 43 games under Tippett McDavid was plus-8, while Draisaitl was plus-5 in 44 games.
When the leaders lead, the followers follow, and by the above stats you can see that Edmonton has gone from being minus-12 under Tippett in 44 games to plus-8 under Woodcroft in 15 games.
Toss in a power play that is emerging from some struggles, add in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi upon their return, and you have the formula for a team that can compete well at five-on-five, with a power play that should be able to produce despite limited opportunities.
That’s the kind of team that can win a round, perhaps two, in the post-season.
Improved five-on-five play gives Oilers fans reason for optimism - Sportsnet.ca
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